The Oil Surplus Nobody Is Modeling
Global oil demand enters permanent structural surplus by 2028–2029. Five demand-destruction forces the consensus underestimates — and why a Hormuz conflict accelerates the timeline, not reverses it.
Latest
Archive
If China Leads in Solar, Why Is It Building More Coal?
Three answers to the coal question. The third one — coal-to-olefins — is the thesis nobody in Western energy markets has priced.
Reading Words: What the 15th Five-Year Plan Actually Says
The FYP as deployment order, not speculative bet. Why TFP is China's new organizational scorecard, and what RMB internationalization actually means.
The IEA Error: Why Every China Forecast Is Wrong in the Same Direction
China export consensus misses 2024–2026. The same structural misforecast the IEA made on solar, applied to trade surplus.