Foundations
The Framework
The Smil-Rosling synthesis — the analytical engine the whole series runs on.
After Dark 暗摆着 — companion essays where the analytical call gets made before the evidence is fully in. Speculative by design.
Part 1
Building the Electrostate
The supply side, assembled — generation, storage, transmission, and a nuclear fleet at a cost the petrostate can't match.
Part 2
Becoming the Electrostate
The demand side. Five migrations carry the economy from 30% electrification toward 60%, each at a third of the energy.
Part 3
Coming soon
Exporting the Electrostate
The stack as a sovereign-grade export to the Global South — and what that buys, on both ends.
Companion
Desert Hydrogen
Where the electron becomes a molecule — green hydrogen at a claimed $1.2/kg floor, and the constraint that binds: collocation.
The Electrostate Series — the core thesis: how China assembled a sovereign electrical supply, how demand converts to consume it, and what the stack becomes as an export. Foundations, three parts, one companion. Series page →
Latest
After Dark · 暗摆着
Becoming the Electrostate
Sinopec dated the gasoline peak to 2023; the actuals ran faster. The demand did not vanish — it changed meters. Five migrations carry electrification from 30% toward 60%.
Desert Hydrogen
The West had the right molecule and the wrong price. In the deserts of western China, $1.2/kg green hydrogen undercuts grey — no carbon price required.
Building the Electrostate
UK coal. US petroleum. China sovereign electricity. The supply stack, assembled — and a nuclear fleet built at a cost the West no longer remembers how to match.
The Framework
A note on first principles. Why the Smil-Rosling synthesis is the analytical engine of Plain Sight Research — and why it keeps producing China.
The Scorecard: Alibaba Q4 FY2026
My quarterly prediction was a disaster. The quarter was the strongest guidance Eddie Wu has ever given — and the $100B target is confirmed as pure cloud.
The Dark Matter of AI in China
China's AI program didn't start with DeepSeek. It started in 2016, with Demis Hassabis. R1 was the visible flame. The wildfire is AI for materials.
Archive
More from Plain Sight
Solar, Batteries and…Hauling Rocks?
CMOC grew copper output 77% in two years, on two orebodies it bought from Freeport. The reason isn't state policy. It's cheaper equipment, lower-grade capability, and a capital cost advantage.
Swimming With the Current: Alibaba at $124
A $295B megacap trading at 40–45% of fair value. Cloud growing 36%. AI revenue in its tenth consecutive triple-digit quarter. The algorithm reads collapse; it's actually a pivot.
The Oil Surplus Nobody Is Modeling
Permanent structural surplus by 2028–2029. Five demand-destruction forces the consensus underestimates. A Hormuz conflict accelerates the timeline; it doesn't reverse it.
If China Leads in Solar, Why Is It Building More Coal?
Three answers to the coal question. The third one — coal-to-olefins — is the thesis nobody in Western energy markets has priced.
Reading Words: What the 15th Five-Year Plan Actually Says
The FYP as deployment order, not speculative bet. Why TFP is China's new organizational scorecard, and what RMB internationalization actually means.
The IEA Error: Why Every China Forecast Is Wrong in the Same Direction
China export consensus misses 2024–2026. The same structural misforecast the IEA made on solar, applied to trade surplus.